2025 Inflation Rate Forecast Accuracy. The july 2025 cpi report will likely increase the fed’s confidence that inflation is on the way to its 2% target and position the fed to cut interest rates in september. Morgan research forecasts global core inflation will remain sticky at around 3% in 2025.

After posting a 1.9% annualized rate in the final six months of 2023, core pce inflation jumped to a 4.5% annualized rate in the three months ended in march 2025. We now expect that the region’s economy will slow less than we previously projected as inflation pressures.